Uncertainty Quantification of Property Models: Methodology and Its Application to CO2-Loaded Aqueous MEA Solutions

Uncertainties in property models can significantly affect the results obtained from process simulations. If these uncertainties are not quantified, optimal plant designs based on such models can be misleading. With this incentive, a systematic, generalized uncertainty quantification (UQ) methodology for property models is developed in this work. Starting with prior beliefs about parametric uncertainties, a Bayesian method is used to derive informed posteriors by using the experimental data. To reduce the computational expense, surrogate response surface models are developed. For down-selecting the parameter space, a sensitivity matrix-based approach is developed. The methodology is then deployed to the property models for an MEA-CO2-H2O system. The UQ analysis is found to provide interesting information about uncertainties in the parameter space. The sensitivity matrix approach is also found to be a valuable tool for reducing computational expense. Finally, the effect of the estimated parametric uncertainty on CO2 absorption and MEA regeneration is analyzed. This article is protected by copyright. All rights reserved.